Executive Summary
- The Claim: "Apprenticeship starts are set to reach zero by 2027" - British Hair Consortium to Parliament, February 2025
- The Reality: Two consecutive years of strong growth (+14.6% in 2022/23, +15.9% in 2023/24)
- The Deception: Cherry-picked baseline year, ignored recent growth, extrapolated historical decline despite recovery
- The Pattern: Manufactured crisis used to justify regulatory expansion and commercial interests
The Claim
In their February 2025 report to Parliament, the British Hair Consortium made an extraordinary prediction:
This wasn't an isolated statement. In October 2025, they declared on social media: "Apprenticeships in the industry have collapsed. From 16,000 to under 5,000."
This narrative appeared in Business and Trade Select Committee submissions, trade media coverage, and industry advocacy campaigns. It created fear among salon owners and discouraged young people from considering hair and beauty careers.
There's just one problem: it's completely false.
The Reality: Strong Growth, Not Collapse
Official Department for Education statistics tell a dramatically different story.
England (Department for Education)
| Academic Year | Apprenticeship Starts | Change from Previous Year |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 5,530 | — |
| 2022/23 | 6,340 | +810 (+14.6%) |
| 2023/24 | 7,350 | +1,010 (+15.9%) |
Two consecutive years of strong growth
Scotland (Skills Development Scotland)
| Academic Year | Apprenticeship Starts | Change from 2020/21 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | 284 | — |
| 2021/22 | 498 | +214 (+75%) |
| 2022/23 | 559 | +275 (+97%) |
| 2023/24 | 606 | +322 (+113%) |
Scotland has more than doubled apprenticeship starts in three years
Key Finding
Apprenticeships aren't collapsing - they're recovering strongly after pandemic disruption and qualification system reforms. The BHC's prediction of "zero by 2027" contradicts every data point from the past two years.
Completion Rates Are Improving Too
It's not just about starts - people are successfully completing qualifications at unprecedented rates.
Advanced Hair Professional Completions (England)
| Academic Year | Completions | Change from Previous Year |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 130 | — |
| 2022/23 | 255 | +125 (+96%) |
| 2023/24 | 640 | +510 (+200%) |
Nearly 5x increase in advanced qualification completions in two years
Scotland's Success Story
Scotland's hairdressing apprenticeship completion rate reached 76% in 2023/24 - matching the all-sector average for the first time. This represents significant improvement in both quality and outcomes.
The Deception: Four Fraudulent Techniques
How did the BHC transform a recovery into a collapse? Through systematic data manipulation.
1. Cherry-Picked Baseline Year
The BHC compared current figures to 2015/16, when apprenticeship starts reached 18,170 - an anomalously high year when old qualification frameworks were ending and providers rushed to enroll students before structures changed.
The Analogy
This is like measuring flood risk by comparing current river levels to a once-in-50-years flood event. When the anomaly ends, normal levels look like a "collapse" - but they're actually just... normal.
Any comparison to 2015/16 is mathematically meaningless. That year was an outlier caused by qualification system changes, not representative of sustainable baseline demand.
2. Ignored Recent Growth
The BHC published their report in February 2025 - months after the 2023/24 data became available showing +1,010 starts and +15.9% growth.
They had the data. They chose to ignore it.
What BHC Claimed
"Apprenticeships have collapsed... set to reach zero by 2027"
What Data Shows
Two consecutive years of double-digit growth in England, more than doubling in Scotland
3. Extreme Extrapolation
The BHC took a historical decline (caused by qualification reforms and pandemic disruption) and extended the trend line to predict "zero by 2027" despite:
- Two years of consecutive growth completely reversing the trend
- Improving completion rates indicating quality improvements
- Recovery across all regions and qualification levels
- Zero evidence supporting continued decline
Statistical Absurdity
Extrapolating a reversed trend line into the future is methodologically dishonest. It's like predicting in 2022 that COVID deaths would reach infinity by 2024 because they grew exponentially in 2020 - ignoring that vaccines reversed the trend.
This isn't analysis - it's propaganda dressed as mathematics.
4. Conflated Different Data Sets
The "from 16,000 to under 5,000" claim compares:
- Peak year under old qualification system (16,000+ starts in 2015/16)
- Trough year during qualification reforms (under 5,000 starts in 2021/22)
- While completely ignoring recovery to current 7,350+ starts
It's like claiming "employment collapsed" by comparing pre-pandemic highs to pandemic lows while ignoring the subsequent recovery. Technically true for that specific comparison, but deliberately misleading about current conditions.
Why This Matters Methodologically
Valid trend analysis requires:
- Representative baseline (not anomalous peak years)
- Current data (not selectively excluded recent figures)
- Trend verification (not extrapolation of reversed patterns)
- Honest context (not conflation of system changes with sector decline)
The BHC violated every principle of honest statistical analysis.
Why This Matters
Real-World Consequences of Fabricated Data
- Misleads Policymakers: Parliament makes decisions about education funding based on sector needs. False claims waste legislative time and misdirect resources.
- Discourages Young People: Who wants to train for a career they're told is "collapsing"? This manufactured crisis actively harms recruitment.
- Justifies Unnecessary Regulation: BHC uses this false crisis to advocate for mandatory registration that would financially benefit their officers.
- Undermines Legitimate Businesses: Salon owners making decisions about apprenticeships deserve accurate information, not propaganda.
The Pattern: Crisis → Solution → Profit
This isn't the first time the BHC has manufactured a crisis to justify their preferred solutions.
- Fabricate crisis using cherry-picked data and extreme predictions
- Propose solution involving mandatory registration, increased powers, expanded revenues
- Benefit commercially through expanded regulatory reach and business opportunities
The apprenticeship "collapse" follows exactly this pattern. And it's funded by commercial interests with skin in the game.
Who Benefits From the False Crisis?
| Party | Interest | Benefit from Crisis Narrative |
|---|---|---|
| Phorest Software | Funded the BHC report | Crisis drives salons to "modernise" systems; sells salon management software |
| Hair & Barber Council Officers | Gareth Penn (Registrar) advocates for mandatory registration | Would expand H&BC revenues and commercial operations |
| BHC Members | Industry bodies and associations | Justifies existence, drives membership fees, positions as "solution" |
Who Loses?
- Young people scared away from viable careers
- Salon owners making decisions based on false information
- Parliament wasting time on manufactured problems
- The public through poor policy based on bad data
What the Data Actually Shows
After pandemic disruption and qualification system reforms, apprenticeships in hair and beauty are:
- ✅ Growing - +1,010 starts in England alone (2023/24)
- ✅ Recovering - Scotland more than doubled from 2020/21 trough
- ✅ Completing - Advanced qualifications up 5x in two years
- ✅ Stabilising- Completion rates now match sector average
This is a recovery story, not a collapse.
What You Can Do
If You're a Policymaker
- Demand source data for any "crisis" claims before making decisions
- Check official statistics directly rather than relying on lobby group summaries
- Ask who benefits from proposed "solutions" to manufactured problems
- Consider conflicts of interest when commercial funders sponsor advocacy reports
If You're a Salon Owner
- Don't let false claims discourage you from hiring apprentices
- Check official data sources, not trade body propaganda
- Report false regulatory claims to Trading Standards
- Question who benefits when you're told the sky is falling
If You're a Young Person
- The data shows this is a viable, growing career path
- Apprenticeship opportunities are increasing, not disappearing
- Completion rates are improving year-on-year
- Don't let manufactured fear discourage you from pursuing your interests
If You're a Journalist
- Always ask for source data when reporting industry "crisis" claims
- Verify against official government statistics before publication
- Question who funds "independent" reports and what they stand to gain
- Follow the money - commercial interests shape narratives
Conclusion
The apprenticeship system in hair and beauty faced real challenges during qualification reforms and the pandemic. But the data conclusively shows strong recovery and growth, not collapse.
The BHC's claim that apprenticeships will reach "zero by 2027" is not just wrong - it's mathematically impossible given current growth trends.
This manufactured crisis serves commercial interests, not young people. It discourages careers, misleads policymakers, and wastes resources on imaginary problems.
Policy decisions should be based on facts, not fabricated crises designed to serve lobby group agendas.
Data Sources & Evidence
All source documents are available for independent verification:
- Department for Education - Apprenticeship Starts by Sector (FOI Response, March 2024)
- Skills Development Scotland - Modern Apprenticeships Annual Statistics 2020/21 to 2023/24
- ONS - Apprenticeship Completions by Qualification Level (Advanced Hair Professional data)
- British Hair Consortium Report - "Securing the Future of UK Hairdressing & Beauty" (February 2025, funded by Phorest)
Complete dataset with calculations: data.salonlogicpro.co.uk/employment-workforce-data.html
Download all source documents: data.salonlogicpro.co.uk/sources/
Every number in this article can be verified against official government sources. Challenge our analysis: analysis@salonlogicpro.co.uk